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Ryanair Holdings (IRE) - Weekly

By Minipip
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Ryanair is the largest low-cost carrier in Europe. The pandemic effected business however with lockdowns now easing the outlook for the airline looks possibly positive.

Ryanair Holdings DAC (LSE: "RYA") is an Irish ultra-low-cost airline. The airline has seen revenue drops of around 81% in the last 12 months, however, the outlook could be positive as competition will be ever more fierce coming out of the pandemic. Ryanair has one of the best infrastructures for low-cost carriage in Europe, which is essential to survival. A key rival is EasyJet PLC.

From a financial aspect, the company is doing poorly, but this would be expected. Total market capitalisation €18.31bn with 20/21 revenue at just €1.635bn with a loss of €1.01bn, as opposed to 19/20 which saw €8.49bn with a profit after tax of €648.7m. Revenue has decreased about 81% throughout the pandemic, which is hard. Looking at the balance though, cash on hand as of March 2021 was €2.65bn, with equipment assets totalling €8.549bn. Total assets amounted to €12.328bn with total liabilities being €7.681bn, leaving net positive assets of €4.646bn. This gives Ryanair a L/A ratio of 62.3%, which is outstanding for an airline, especially since it is not a flag carrier. To put that into perspective, EasyJet has a ratio of 81%, IAG has a ratio of 95.6% And Delta has a ratio of 97.8%.

From a technical aspect, the stock is supported. MACD is negative and RSI reads 51.8 which would give a slight downward bias, however, trendline support has proved this week to be supportive. Support sits at 15.00, a break below here takes you to the 200SMA and support at 14.20. This would be the floor for Ryanair, a break lower could mean much further downside. Looking to the upside though, targets/resistance are the yearly highs of 17.50, a break above here takes Ryanair towards 20.00 and then 22.00.

Overall Ryanair is a solid airline stock, this is because the assets to debt ratio is one of the lowest of all airlines in the world, but also the loss isn't too bad in comparison to some other airlines - thus the financials tick out. The technical picture also looks good too, support is below all the way down to 14.00 and upside targets are 22.00 in the medium term. It will be a definite grind higher and could take months or even a year or two, but the outlook for Ryanair looks good. The pandemic could allow for more business as competitors go bust or struggle to break the market as Ryanair have done.

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