Brazil Reaps Rewards as US-China Trade War Hits American Farmers

China Turns to South America as Tariffs Rise

Brazil is benefiting significantly from the renewed trade war between the United States and China. As the world’s second-largest economy looks to avoid hefty US tariffs, it’s turning to Latin America’s largest nation for essential agricultural goods — boosting Brazilian exports of soybeans, beef, and poultry.

The shift comes after former US President Donald Trump ramped up tariffs on Chinese imports by 145%, with Beijing retaliating with a 125% levy on American goods. The result? China is buying less from the US and more from Brazil.

Brazilian Agriculture Booms

Brazilian farmers are seeing strong demand and soaring prices. In the first quarter of 2025:

• Beef exports to China rose by 33% year-on-year.
• Poultry exports jumped by 19% in March alone.
• Soybeans from Brazil now command a $1.15 premium over US soybeans — a dramatic shift from a 25-cent discount just months ago.

Ishan Bhanu, lead agriculture analyst at Kpler, said:

“This is a long-term shift. Asian countries are forming deeper trade ties with South America.”

US Farmers Left Reeling

While Brazil gains, American farmers are struggling. Agricultural exports to China fell 54% in January compared to last year. Chinese buyers have pulled back sharply on soybeans, sorghum, wheat, and corn, with many processors halting US grain imports entirely.

The pressure is mounting. Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky soybean farmer and Trump supporter, wrote an open letter urging the former president to negotiate a deal:

“After the first trade war, we lost nearly 10% of market share to China. The farm economy is weaker now — we can’t afford another hit.”

US Market Impact: A Shrinking Share

The trade war is having a clear negative impact on the US agricultural sector:

• The US share of China’s food imports fell from 20.7% in 2016 to 13.5% by 2023.
• Brazil’s share, meanwhile, rose from 17.2% to 25.2% in the same period.

Industry experts warn that without tariff relief, US grain exports to China could “go to zero” by May. China has already blocked many US meat processing plants from exporting, effectively freezing a significant portion of US beef sales worth $1.6 billion last year.

Brazil Steps Into the Gap

Brazilian agribusiness leaders see this as a pivotal moment. Aurélio Pavinato, CEO of SLC Agrícola, said:

“China wants to diversify suppliers, and Europe views Brazil as a stable source. Foreign demand and prices are climbing.”

Even the US Soybean Export Council admits Trump’s first trade war helped build Brazil’s agricultural strength. With the current trade tensions extending into 2025, Brazil is cementing its role as a global food supplier — often at America’s expense.

Sources: (BBC.co.uk, FT.com)