The tightest grain inventories are creeping upon us as the war in Europe causes further chaos.

Despite the resumption of exports from Ukraine, the tightest grain inventories are heading our way. The number of shipments is not enough and harvests from other major crop producers are smaller than expected. The poor weather conditions are adding to the fire in key agricultural regions such the US, France and China, it’s shrinking grain harvests and cutting inventories (investing.com). Increasing the risk of famine in some of the world’s poorest countries. By the end of the 22/23 crop year, the world’s capacity of corn will be enough for only 80 days’ worth of consumption. That is 28% less than 5 years ago and lowest since 2010/2011, really worrying some of the policymakers (investing.com). Furthermore, EU production is expected to hit a 15-year low. Such decline will lead to the bloc increasing imports from Ukraine by approximately 30% from the previous year to 10.4 million tonnes (investing.com).

The World Bank has allocated $30 billion to help counteract food shortages affected by the war. In addition, Joe Biden has announced almost $3 billion in further funding to combat global food uncertainty (investing.com).