Global Oil Demand to Keep Rising Through 2029, Says IEA

Slower EV adoption and cheaper petrol in the US offset China’s demand peak, pushing global usage to new highs

Oil Demand Growth to Continue This Decade

Global demand for oil is expected to continue rising until 2029, even as China—one of the world’s top importers—reaches peak demand by 2027, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

In its latest annual report, the Paris-based IEA projects oil use will peak at 105.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2029, before dipping slightly in 2030.

Key Drivers Behind Sustained Demand

Despite environmental efforts and EV growth, several factors are propping up demand:

• Petrol remains relatively cheap in the United States
• Electric vehicle (EV) adoption is slower than expected
• The US continues to lead in global oil consumption

These trends are expected to raise 2030 oil demand by 1.1 million bpd more than previously forecast.

China’s Oil Demand Nears Plateau

China, the world’s largest importer of oil, is still expected to increase consumption modestly through the end of the decade. However:

• Demand in China will peak in 2027
• By 2030, total oil use in China will be only slightly higher than in 2024
• This is a marked revision from last year’s IEA forecast, which predicted growth of 1 million bpd in China by 2030

The revision reflects the country's slowing economic growth and stronger investments in renewables and EVs.

Supply Expected to Outpace Demand by 2030

While demand will rise until 2029, global production capacity is also increasing:

• Oil output capacity is forecast to reach 114.7 million bpd by 2030
• This is more than 9 million bpd above the projected 2029 peak in demand

This growing surplus could lead to downward pressure on oil prices, especially if EV adoption and climate policies accelerate in major economies.

Trump’s Energy Policies Influencing US Demand

Since returning to office, US President Donald Trump has actively pushed for lower oil prices and challenged green energy policies:

• He has pressured OPEC to reduce prices
• Trump signed legislation blocking California’s EV mandates
• These steps have slowed the EV rollout, supporting fossil fuel demand

This shift in US policy is a major reason for the upward revision in global oil demand forecasts.

What This Means for Energy Markets and Investors

The IEA’s forecast suggests:

• Oil companies may continue to see steady profits through 2029
• Investment in fossil fuel infrastructure may still be justified in the medium term
• However, a tipping point may come post-2030 as production outpaces demand

For investors, the message is clear: oil remains a viable medium-term play, but the window is narrowing as energy transitions pick up pace globally.

Summary

• Global oil demand to peak in 2029 at 105.6m bpd
• China to reach peak demand in 2027
• US demand grows due to slow EV adoption and cheaper petrol
• Production capacity to hit 114.7m bpd by 2030
• Trump’s policies support fossil fuel use, delay EV shift

Sources: (MSN.com, Reuters.com)